“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful."
23 十一月, 2007 於 22:13 | 張貼於Economy, Finance | 發表留言標籤： risk-taking derivatives
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful."
There is certainly no shortage of fear surrounding financials as writedowns stemming from the imploding US mortgage market have infected banks and insurers. The ranks of victims are also growing, after Freddie Mac, the US mortgage giant, posted a $2bn loss for the third quarter.
As Buffett has said: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked." At the moment, it appears that the tide for financials is still in the process of receding. That leaves investors with plenty of time before they splash in the shallows, let alone strap on a scuba tank and dive for bargain
n the past five years, risk-taking and the appetite for derivatives and financial rocket science have soared. But given the complexity and lack of disclosure of derivatives and various off-balance sheet assets held by banks, can any investor feel comfortable adhering to the Sage of Omaha’s advice: “Never invest in a business you cannot understand"?
財長康納利（John Connally):「美元是我們的貨幣，但卻是你們的問題」
23 十一月, 2007 於 13:38 | 張貼於Economy, Finance, USA | 發表留言標籤： 美元貨幣, our currency, your problem
面對美國經濟有衰退之虞，美元持續走貶，形同美國在向全球做著通貨膨脹輸出的情勢，如果這種事情發生在某洲某國，美國早已義正辭嚴大力撻伐並要求國際干預甚或抵制了。但對美元問題，遠自尼克遜時代的美元危機起，當時的財長康納利（John Connally）就說過「美元是我們的貨幣，但卻是你們的問題」 這樣的名言，而這種態度一直延續至今。例如，不久前七國峰會時次貸問題初爆，歐洲多國即認為美國應追究次貸風暴罪魁禍首——債券信用評級公司涉嫌詐欺之 責，並要求美國主動收縮信用，但因這有違美國金融寡頭的利益，它當然不加理會。而就在前週，法國總統薩爾科齊訪美，他在國會演說時，也要求美國應對美元問 題的穩定採取行動，不能繼續以鄰為壑，但仍被當作耳邊風。
In 1971, Republican President Nixon appointed the then Democrat Connally as Treasury Secretary. Connally that year famously told a delegation of Europeans worried about exchange rate fluctuations that the dollar is “our currency, but your problem."
美元全球泛濫，引發投機風潮
23 十一月, 2007 於 13:24 | 張貼於Economy, Finance, USA | 發表留言標籤： 美元全球泛濫
http://www.yzzk.com/cfm/Content_Archive.cfm?Channel=ac&Path=2198973092/47ac1.cfm
美元全球泛濫，引發投機風潮，已成了全球經濟和金融動盪的淵藪，但美國仍不加理會。美國經濟正走向衰退的邊緣。全球各國須設法自救，自行吸收通貨膨脹的壓力，甚或聯合干預美元。由於美國經濟衰退的跡象日益明顯，連續數週以來美元匯價跌跌不休，作為國際首要貨幣的功能也開始動搖。在這個舊秩序開始崩壞而新秩序仍無蹤影的時刻，美元雖是美國的貨幣，但卻成了全球共同的問題。最近美元以洪水般的姿態在全球泛濫以求套利保值，油市、股市、匯市、房市、金市甚至古董市場，都成了美元時代終結前被大肆炒作的投機市場，美元已成了全球經濟和金融動盪的淵藪。
過 去十餘年來，美國以低利率、高負債、高國際債務的方式追求經濟的成長。一九九零年代末期，甚至以所謂「金融創新」的方式將銀行房貸債務轉化為衍生性商品， 轉銷給全球金融系統，將別國的儲備挪為己用。房市崩塌、次貸風暴、消費不振、美元下貶、信用緊縮，都只不過是危機的一個個側面。十一月七日，美國聯邦儲備 局主席伯南克在國會作證時表示，從今年第四季起，美國經濟的疲軟和通貨膨脹將會「持續一段時間」。在他談話之際的這兩個星期，美國的衰退問題已開始進入了 時間表——所謂「衰退」，依美國之定義，乃是持續兩季和以上的負成長
Treasury’s Paulson seeks broader mortgage help
23 十一月, 2007 於 00:26 | 張貼於Economy, USA | 發表留言標籤： subprime mortgages
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is pressing the U.S. mortgage industry to help large groups of borrowers automatically, worried lenders will be unable to staunch a worsening mortgage crisis if they try to fix loans one-by-one.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Wednesday, Paulson said he was “aggressively encouraging" the mortgage servicers to develop new criteria that would speed the qualification of certain borrowers for better terms more quickly as a crush of subprime mortgages reset next year. This is a shift from Paulson’s previous strategy of encouraging the industry to work on a case-by-case basis with troubled borrowers.
He told the newspaper he is expecting a wave of mortgage defaults next year.
This is a really bad sign indicating crush of subprime mortgages get gets worse before it becomes better.
小鷹號不來港
23 十一月, 2007 於 00:06 | 張貼於China, USA | 發表留言標籤： Little Hawk
美國小鷹號航空母艦戰鬥群，決定不靠泊香港，正駛返日本的橫須賀母港。對於中方早前拒絕小鷹號來港，美軍太平洋艦隊司令基廷說，感到困惑及關注，但不知道 原因。他又證實，在小鷹號事件前三、四日，美軍兩艘掃雷艦亦因南中國海天氣惡劣，要求靠泊本港補給燃料，但被中方拒絕。
北京前日拒絕小鷹號戰鬥群來港，到昨日改變態度，同意以人道考慮，讓官兵在香港渡過感恩節。不過美軍最終決定，小鷹號不來港。This is a slam in the Chinese face by the US Navy
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